Continues to drop in polls

By ADAM NAGOURNEY
Published: November 23, 2009

WASHINGTON — President Obama returned from his trip to Asia facing some unsettling news: two new public-opinion polls showing that his approval rating has dipped below 50 percent for the first time. To many of his critics, who chafed as Mr. Obama enjoyed broad support among Americans even though many were critical of his handling of specific issues like the economy, this erosion is a tipping-point, the end of Mr. Obama’s perceived near-invulnerability.

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For a number of reasons, the slide is not a surprise. Coming less than a year into his presidency, not to mention almost a full year before the 2010 Congressional elections, though, the long-term political significance of the slide is anything but clear.

Still, there is cause for the White House to be concerned, and for Republicans to sense an opportunity. The poll numbers worry Democratic strategists who are preparing for the already tough mid-term elections. They are well aware of the significance of presidential approval ratings in predicting the outcome — and particularly of what happens when a president’s approval rating is below 50 percent in the two months before a mid-term election.

Mr. Obama’s decline a year into his term comes as he struggles through a decidedly sour climate. The unemployment rate has jumped above 10 percent and shows no sign of abating. At this point, even if Mr. Obama cannot be blamed for causing the economic decline, Americans are growing impatient with him to fix it.

His main legislative initiative — the health care bill — is the subject of a messy fight in Congress, displaying Washington in the very bitter partisan light that Mr. Obama promised to end. It has provided Republicans with a platform to stir concerns that Mr. Obama is using the health care overhaul to expand the role of government beyond the comfort level of many Americans; polls suggest that these arguments have helped sow significant doubts.